Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.833273 1.950089 2.073281 2.213349 2.368764 2.536589 2.732417
2025-11-23 1.656328 1.816871 1.994691 2.207945 2.459038 2.748235 3.110919
2025-11-30 1.554739 1.741892 1.956415 2.223784 2.552882 2.951398 3.481374
2025-12-07 1.454423 1.654638 1.889966 2.191849 2.576336 3.060797 3.736914
2025-12-14 1.361979 1.567778 1.814413 2.138078 2.561782 3.113422 3.915494
2025-12-21 1.298252 1.510495 1.769426 2.116497 2.582821 3.209502 4.158603
2025-12-28 1.262870 1.485266 1.761536 2.140014 2.662609 3.389174 4.540158
2026-01-04 1.217178 1.443883 1.729623 2.128078 2.690801 3.495888 4.821971
2026-01-11 1.191012 1.425691 1.726064 2.152968 2.770861 3.683464 5.255097
2026-01-18 1.158011 1.396646 1.706027 2.152858 2.813363 3.816426 5.614407
2026-01-25 1.141506 1.388252 1.712755 2.189994 2.912646 4.046274 6.178316
2026-02-01 1.100899 1.345768 1.670672 2.153952 2.897021 4.087346 6.398428
2026-02-08 1.059061 1.301145 1.625158 2.112548 2.873454 4.118445 6.616486
2026-02-15 1.031846 1.275461 1.604998 2.107573 2.907192 4.250958 7.064290
2026-02-22 1.012868 1.260175 1.598530 2.122302 2.973139 4.446267 7.684947
2026-03-01 0.981658 1.226665 1.564436 2.092604 2.962854 4.501156 8.003266
2026-03-08 0.946323 1.186214 1.518754 2.042559 2.914630 4.479971 8.138731
2026-03-15 0.921804 1.160206 1.493070 2.022460 2.916060 4.553399 8.521004
2026-03-22 0.910660 1.152705 1.494062 2.044362 2.991628 4.779649 9.350952
2026-03-29 0.891045 1.132403 1.475223 2.033246 3.007477 4.886917 9.890662
2026-04-05 0.881668 1.126479 1.477524 2.056422 3.086718 5.135157 10.913697
2026-04-12 0.866702 1.111932 1.466176 2.056320 3.122706 5.294902 11.724553
2026-04-19 0.861203 1.110986 1.475393 2.090878 3.226418 5.618945 13.211592